In March 2004, Eli found a lump in one of her breasts which was subsequently diagnose as malignant. She had a lumpectomy, an operation to remove some lymph nodes (which killed her - literally - she had to be recussitated on the operating table) and then 7 months of Chemotherapy and Radiotherapy.
This treatment triggered a premature menopause which was, thankfully, temporary.
Roll forward 4 years and we're expecting a baby! Given Eli's age (I aint telling!) and our history, the odds of this are pretty darned miniscule, so as you can imagine we view Pip as a little miracle!
I've been trying to find some hard statistics on this but it's difficult to find something which gives me a very clear percentage chance.
At best odds, extrapolating numbers from one study (Breast Cancer in Young Women : Effect of Chemotherapy on Ovarian Function, Fertility, and Birth Defects - Bonnie S. Reichman, Karen B. Green)It seems to be about an 8% chance of having a full term pregnancy (19 children from a study of 227 women - I know it's not an exact ratio but it's close enough for a layman)
On the other end of the scale is the fact that Eli is over 35 (don't tell her I told you that! She's 21... again...) has had at least temporary amenorrhea and therefore 96% likely to have abnormal ovulation (post chemotherapy) putting her in a 4% bracket for ovulation and therefore given a 60% pregnancy probability rate (Parenthood probability and pregnancy outcome in patients with a cancer diagnosis during adolescence and young adulthood H. Magelssen, K.K. Melve3, R. Skjærven, and S.D. Fosså)
Even though it's starting to sound like a dissertation, don't get me wrong, this isn't science... I've quoted some numbers from some articles I've read on the subject but they could be entirely the wrong articles or I may well have jumped to the wrong conclusions.
All of the doctors and midwives we've met keep telling us that it's a little miracle that Eli is pregnant with no problems whatsoever for her and baby (touch wood!) I'm just trying to figure out if they're blowing smoke up our asses :)
Given that, near as I can figure, disregarding any other factors, from the above there is somewhere between an 2% and 8% chance of Eli even conceiving! If you start to add in other factors like the probability of my fertility, doing stuff at the right time ;) etc. etc. etc. then it starts to become a more and more remote possibility...
As you can imagine, this makes us feel even more lucky to be where we are right now.
I know every parent feels blessed and every child is a miracle but in this case given the remote possibility, it's actually true :) - My fervent wish is that she continue this streak of good fortune throughout the rest of her gestation, birth and life!
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